As I waited in line to cast my special vote at a local primary school on Saturday, I took a moment to consider if the special votes, in conjunction with the overseas votes, would play an important part in the 2023 election. Could it be close enough that those votes might be the deciding factor?
Well, those votes will indeed be a factor, if not a deciding factor, in the overall outcome, so I need wonder no more. I may have a dozen or more intriguing scenarios to weigh up, but the move to the right became all too obvious early on in the counting, and that move was never seriously challenged during the rest of the night.
I wasn’t alone in the queue to cast a special vote, far from it in fact, and the number of voters who were patiently waiting to cast a vote in the queue for those properly prepared and had not waited till the last minute, as I had, to get their details in order offered a snapshot of the total turnout. A friend sent me a picture of the lines outside a polling station in Martinborough and the snapshot was now, in my mind, something more concrete … the turnout was going to be reasonably high.
Some election veterans maintain a high turnout is often the precursor to a change in government, whereas a low turnout supports the status quo because the writing is apparently on the wall, so why would one bother casting what might seem to be a worthless vote.
When all is said and done, the 2023 version should have a total voting turnout that tops 80 per cent. The mood for change has plenty of backing.
That said, there is a variation of views as to which way the special and overseas votes will go.
Traditionally, Labour and the Green Party do quite well when these votes have been calculated into the mix. A not insignificantly sized spanner in the works this time round comes in the form of disgruntled New Zealanders who wanted to come home during covid-19 and were unceremoniously locked out during particularly lengthy lockdowns.
They were miffed, to say the least, that the borders were closed to them and they might fancy casting something of a protest vote to show their displeasure. That protest might not go much further than changing from red to green, but some may want to make a bolder statement than they might otherwise have. The permutations could be the difference between a two-party and a three-party coaltion.
On the subject of colours, the only post-election colour that mattered to many of us yesterday was black – although I understand there were some hints of green around the region as Ireland and New Zealand faced off in what would be an epic quarterfinal at the Rugby World Cup in France.
The All Blacks have copped plenty of flak in the past two years and had the rare tag of underdogs for yesterday’s match. They produced an extraordinary performance against the highest-ranked team in the world to record a stirring victory.
That should quieten a few detractors. For a week, at least.
