Some climate change sceptics use El Niño and La Niña weather patterns as a reason to downplay the significance of rising global temperatures.
The reality is that whatever causes or exaggerates them is dangerously compounding the risks to life as we know it.
Global temperatures rose alarmingly in September, following the hottest-ever July and August in Northern Hemisphere countries. The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that it was by far the warmest October on record globally, with an average surface air temperature of 15.3degC. October 2023 was 0.85degC above the 1991-2020 average, and 0.4degC above the previous warmest October in 2019.
Certainly, El Niño, the planet’s biggest natural climate phenomenon, is contributing significantly. During the previous three years La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean lowered temperatures around the world by several tenths of a degree as more heat was stored in the ocean.
There is an opposite effect with El Niño, which releases ocean heat and drives up temperatures. In the past, the heating impact of El Niño has been at its most serious in the year after it begins, which is a grim prediction for 2024.
In Australia, with serious bushfires already threatening townships, the summer drought is likely to be brutal in a number of ways.
While there is evidence that human-caused global warming and El Niño are the biggest factors in the record-breaking temperatures, other factors are contributing as well, including sulphur emission cuts in shipping and industry, and the major volcanic eruption in Tonga.
Another major contributor is activity in the 11-year solar cycle. As the sun nears the peak of its current cycle, there is increasing activity affecting Earth. According to scientists, that peak may be occurring sooner than predicted. Initially, peak activity was forecast to begin in July 2025. Now, experts believe the cyclical peak is more likely to take place in mid- to late 2024.
Despite the recent, concerning rise in temperatures, most climate scientists say the global heating trends are broadly in line with predictions over the last three decades. And human ingenuity has found a number of novel ways to ignore or downplay these predictions.
Scientists are now warning that the exceptional global temperature rises in 2023 are likely to become normal in a decade or so unless there is a truly dramatic increase in climate action. One essential will be slashing the burning of fossil fuels down to zero.
How likely is this to happen: In the advanced economies where it is technologically possible but challenging to the business world that ultimately controls such decisions, or in the hugely populated undeveloped world where fossil fuels remain vital to survival?
As New Zealand’s three governing party leaders continue to dance around agreeing or compromising on their basically trivial differences as they attempt to form a workable coalition, it’s a sure bet climate change will get as much attention as it did during the election campaign. None at all.
Talk about being off the rails. Climate scientists are the same as covid scientists? You cannot stop it learn to live with it or go live somewhere else because all you are doing is winding up people 💯. We live on a planet and it changes 💯 think 🤔 why is Greenland called Greenland its 99% ice 🧊 but they are finding small living areas know as the snow and ice receding. Go get a job in Hollywood they can do anything? And lots of people believe 🙄 it.